2019

Indonesia's property outlook: Will it goes up indefinitely?

Property industry in general, especially in Jakarta/Jabodetabek area, is generally still really high.
In my opinion, there are 3 options that may happen in the near future:

1. It will be flat for several years, and when the conditions are good/stable later, so it will go up, but it will drop afterwards.

2. It will be flat for several years, and will never go up again. Must wait for a large cycle of bullish property sector (can be more than 10 years)

3. It will be flat for several years, then prices continue to rise indefinitely.

I think no.1 is most likely to occur. Why?

Property in Jabodetabek area was in continuous rise for many years (from 2000-2013, maybe not the exact timeline, but close to that). Many property companies/ speculators made a lot of fortune at that time.

Property sales /contractors are very certain that property price will never go down, because in Indonesia the population is still growing. Hence, more people need houses. As long as people still want to have a child, they will still need a home.

But there is one important fact that is not considered. The land around Jabodetabek area is still plenty.

If this is in Hongkong / S'pore / Tokyo, it makes perfect sense to say that property price will go up forever.

Then, if we learned from what happened after the 2008 US subprime mortgage crisis, property price did fall. The market there is more mature. We can learn the economic cycle from there. More often than not, big economic cycle will always repeat itself (in different time/format).

Other thing is to consider the new generation. They may not necessarily think that they have to buy a house and settled in one place for the rest of their lives.

Well, it's just an opinion. Nobody knows the future. We could only learn from historical economic cycle; while it could still not be predicted, it always repeat by itself in the end.